Prediction Market Weather Bot
Prediction market bot using weather forecasts
Description
Weather temperature contracts on prediction markets often diverge from professional forecasts. This bot uses a 31-member GFS ensemble to find mispriced weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket, alongside BTC 5-minute microstructure signals.
It sizes positions with the Kelly criterion, calibrates signals and includes a React dashboard.
Ensemble forecasts:31-member GFS.
Platforms:Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kelly sizing:Bets scaled to edge.
Dashboard:React UI.
It sizes positions with the Kelly criterion, calibrates signals and includes a React dashboard.
Features
Ensemble forecasts:31-member GFS.
Platforms:Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kelly sizing:Bets scaled to edge.
Dashboard:React UI.
Screenshots
Tags:quantitative-trading